Political campaign strategist Malou Tiquia, founder and general manager of Publicus Asia Inc., said Aquino’s seemingly better ratings in the latest SWS survey should not be compared with those released by Pulse Asia a few weeks ago.
Tiquia made the remark after Communications Secretary Herminio Coloma said in a statement that public gave the President a higher satisfaction rating of 47 percent in the SWS survey than the 38 percent in Pulse Asia’s earlier poll because of more information as regards the Mamasapano tragedy.
“To say that SWS captured a correction on the dip is wrong because the questions asked were different. You cannot compare apples and oranges in the case of what is being measured,” Tiquia said in an online correspondence with GMA News Online.
According to Tiquia, Pulse Asia asked its respondents, thus: “Mayroon ako ritong mga pangalan ng ilang mga opisyal ng ating pamahalaan. Pakisabi ninyo ang inyong opinion tungkol sa pagganap nila ng kanilang tungkulin nitong huling tatlong buwan….”
She said that SWS, on the other hand, asked: “Please tell me how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with the performance of Benigno Aquino III as President of the Philippines…”
“Spins or propaganda may hide the real culprit for the dip but that may not serve well a President in the long run. You need to arrest that and only a correct reading of the data can lead one to scenarios and options to reverse the trend. That is if they are serious in arresting the slide,” Tiquia said.
Tiquia’s firm has handled political campaigns in past elections including those of allies of the administration.
“Pulse measured and is tracking performance and trust while SWS is measured and is tracking public satisfaction,” Tiquia said.
Tiquia said Pulse Asia’s point of view was “for the last three months (recency of events or top of mind comes to play), while SWS is an overall measure [of the] President of the Philippines.”
Mamasapano a ‘dramatic’ force
“The three-week difference in the time frame of the Pulse Asia and the SWS [surveys] does not in any way take into consideration the nuances of the BOI report, made public on 13 March; Executive Summary of the Senate released by Sen. Grace Poe last 17 March; and the MILF Report on Mamasapano made public on 24 March 2015,” Tiquia said.
Tiquia, however, said that both polls reflected several points, including that the dip is primarily “due to Mamasapano, which occured during the survey period.”
Other points she said were shown in both surveys include:
* trend has been established that approval and satisfaction with [Aquino] have dipped to lowest levels compared to last quarter of 2014;
* the trend is observed across geographical areas and socio-economic classes
* only a third supports the call for the resignation of [Aquino].
For his part, political analyst Prospero de Vera said the results must be seen as a result not just of the clash, which, while the biggest factor in the dip, was not the only thing being considered.
“Maraming factors ito, dahil kailangan itong tingnan bilang isang continuum. Ibig sabihin dugtong-dugtong ito na pagtingin ng taumbayan doon sa kaniyang pamumuno kasi hindi lang naman ngayon bumaba,” he said in an interview with News To Go.
“Ang mahalaga, matindi ang pagbaba ngayon, dramatic ‘yung pag-decline. So totoo na malaking bahagi nito ay dahil sa Mamasapano, at sa tingin siguro ng marami ay hindi nila nagustuhan ‘yung response ng Pangulo sa Mamasapano,” De Vera said.
“Hindi naman singular event ‘yung nagpapababa, pero may dramatic event na nagiging dramatic ‘yung pagbagsak. In fact, ayon sa mga nagsu-survey, pareho ito o parang kasing sama nu’ng kay GMA (former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) noon matapos niyang mag-“I am sorry” para sa pandaraya noong eleksyon nu’ng 2004,” he added.
Slow response
De Vera also said that the crisis management and communications teams of the President may have underestimated the public sentiment on the Mamasapano clash.
He said that similar “dramatic” events have happened in past presidencies, such as the rice crisis and Flor Contemplacion case during the term of former President Fidel V. Ramos. He said that in those instances, the communications teams quickly responded.
“Parang malaki ang pagkukulang sa analysis sa aking palagay,” De Vera said. “Dito parang mabagal o maraming kulang sa analysis.”
He said, however, that unlike in previous presidencies, Aquino’s term and the Mamasapano incident were both under public scrutiny by social media.
“Mahirap mag-respond dahil ang response ng tao diyan ay real-time at madaling galitin ang tao sa pamamagitan ng social media… At siguro ang communications team ng Pangulo ngayon, mahina ang handle nila ngayon sa social media,” he said.
‘Arrest’ the dip
Both political experts pointed out that the President’s team needed to “arrest” the significant dip in his ratings.
Tiquia said “only a correct reading of the data can lead one to scenarios and options to reverse the trend.”
For his part, De Vera said addressing this decline should be the immediate response, to look beyond the endorsement for a candidate in 2016.
“Mas problema ‘yung pagtingin ng tao sa mga susunod na gagawin niya. Kasi itong [pagbaba ng] ratings in the midst of criticisms… magiging self-fulfilling ‘yan if tuloy ang pagbaba. Kasi ‘pag hindi na-arrest at bumaba pa at mag-stumble ang Pangulo sa BBL, maniniwala ang tao na babagsak na siya,” he said.
He added: “‘Yon ang kailangan bantayan ng communication team ng Pangulo, na ‘wag itong mag-hemorrhage nang paparating ang SONA (State of the Nation Address).” —Rose-An Jessica Dioquino/NB, GMA News
