
“Tinder” is defined as readily combustible material, like dry twigs, used to kindle fires. You will be surprised at who used the image to describe what the US central bank is sitting on. More on that later; it is best to start with the mess in Europe. The European countries are heavily in debt after the bailouts in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The following are the ratios of their debt to gross domestic product (GDP) as of December 2013. (These are Eurostat data published in Bloomberg.) The larger the debt, the greater is the danger for default. For comparison, the ratio of the Philippines is 49 percent. Topping the list is Greece, whose debt is 175 percent of its GDP. That is, its debt is almost twice the size of its economy. Europe is vulnerable A nation’s debt increases every time it posts a budget deficit. Large and persistent budget deficits signal that the debt will remain swollen. The following are December 2013 European data on budget deficits as a ratio to GDP. For comparison, the latest ratio of the Philippines is a deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP. The largest deficits show up in Greece, Spain, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Portugal and France. While the deficits shrank compared to the year before, the ratio of Greece actually rose, from 8.6 percent to the current 12.2 percent. Hence, the fiscal situation in Greece has worsened. Another indicator of trouble is the annual yield on bonds. Governments Read More …