Let us hope that President Duterte is not running into the arms of China simply because he is pissed with Obama and the EU’s kibitzing in his war on drugs. He must be careful. Rebound romances after a tumultuous break-up are often problematic.
I want to assume that by this time, the President is preparing for his China trip by talking to experts on the geopolitical implications of his pivot to China. We are part of a drama over control of the South China Sea but not a principal actor. Someone once observed that when elephants fight, it is the ants that get trampled upon.
I find it worrisome that recent statements from the President telegraphed his intention to seek a lot of Chinese assistance. That puts him in a compromised begging position when he gets to Beijing because he cannot go home empty handed.
Luckily for Duterte, China seems to be in a giving mood. It found common cause with the new Philippine President in their desire to show the US who is boss in this part of the world. After six cold years with the Aquino government, China would be stupid to let this golden opportunity to get the sunshine back with Duterte.
Winning back the Philippines would help solidify China’s capture of ASEAN’s major members. Thailand and Malaysia are already in China’s orbit and it will only be Indonesia and Singapore among the original five that need to be convinced about a Chinese-led Southeast Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.
China needs Duterte. They almost made it with then president Arroyo who attempted a similar pivot to China after a falling out with the US over our recall of Philippine troops in Iraq.
China started supplying some military equipment in that pivot. Major projects, like the national broadband and NorthRail were also attempted but were aborted amidst the stink of a corruption scandal.
The animosity between the two countries went fever pitch. It climaxed with the Philippines winning a favorable ruling from an international arbitration panel on economic rights over a large swatch of the South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea).
A recent SWS survey found 51 percent of Filipino adults having “little trust,” 19 percent undecided, and 27 percent having “much trust” in China. Historically, China’s net trust score in SWS surveys was constantly “bad” from March 2015 to April 2016, hitting a record-low “bad” -46 in September last year. Its latest net trust score of a “poor” -24 last June was the highest since March 2014’s “poor” -15.
If there is a Philippine President who can sell a compromise agreement with China, it is Duterte. Filipinos have been enraged by continued Chinese aggression in traditional Philippine fishing grounds. The use of superior Chinese Coast Guard vessels against our helpless fishermen did not go unnoticed and certainly will not be forgotten.
But Duterte is basking in his record high popularity rating and feels protected by a militantly devoted base of supporters who worship him. If Duterte says we go with China, we can expect his devotees to go all out to support his controversial decision. Even the war hawk Raffy Alunan is now talking of “constructive engagement.”
In a way, Duterte is right. We have won an international arbitration victory but we have no way of enforcing it. In the meantime, we have to divert a good part of our limited national budget to buy armaments to give our armed forces a semblance of credibility, just in case.
Ever pragmatic, Duterte sees an opportunity to improve our relationship with the neighborhood bully. Doing so also enables him to give the Americans the dirty finger for taking us for granted.
Duterte probably figures if he is able to make China deliver a couple of train systems, a dozen drug rehab centers, a few thousand kilometers of roads, a national broadband that will reduce the greed of our telcos and maybe even make China return what we paid for the aborted NorthRail project, Pinoys who love America may forgive him for embracing Xi Jinping.
But Duterte has to be very careful in negotiating with the Chinese. They are experienced in this game. They have been at it in Africa for decades and we are not known for having good bargaining skills… just check our horrible negotiating record with Uncle Sam.
Aid is an important policy instrument for China. But the bulk of Chinese assistance in Africa falls under the category of development finance, not aid. Chinese officials blur the distinction between the two categories. In other words, the Filipino taxpayers will still pay for some of the big ticket goodies he will claim to receive from China.
The billions of dollars that China commits to Africa are repayable, long-term loans. Brookings cites an article in a Chinese journal that says the Chinese government encourages its agencies and commercial entities to “closely mix and combine foreign aid, direct investment, service contracts, labor cooperation, foreign trade and export.”
The Financial Times reports that “in exchange for most Chinese financial aid to Africa, Beijing requires that infrastructure construction and other contracts favor Chinese service providers: 70 percent of them go to ‘approved,’ mostly state-owned, Chinese companies, and the rest are open to local firms, many of which are also joint ventures with Chinese groups.
“In this sense, China’s financing to Africa, including aid, creates business for Chinese companies and employment opportunities for Chinese laborers, a critical goal of Beijing’s Going Out strategy.”
Indeed, Duterte should be careful about tied aid with China. We should learn from our experience with NorthRail. The Chinese company assigned to carry out the project was merely a trader and had no previous experience in constructing railways. And when the “tied aid” is linked to the profitability of Chinese companies, our interests take a back seat.
Of course the best part of China’s foreign aid is that unlike that of the US, China does not seek to use aid to influence the domestic politics of countries. This is the respect that Duterte keeps on demanding from the US.
But we all know China does not help in exchange for nothing. Other than commercial interests cited earlier, China in the past, also demanded support of Beijing’s “one China” policy and of China’s agenda at multilateral forums, among others. African countries who have received Chinese assistance are known to vote with China in the United Nations.
Of course we should assume Duterte knows all of these things. He didn’t get to be 71 years old and mayor of a key city for nothing. We just want to make sure that in our President’s eagerness to show America how badly he feels about our past colonizer, he doesn’t get into the arms of a neo-colonialist.
Duterte must also realize that the attitude of the Chinese people towards us remains cynical at best. The website QZ.com reported in an article that comments in Weibo, the popular Chinese twitter like platform with 14.9 million followers, are downright disdainful of Filipinos. They apparently see us as “a childlike nation of maids and banana sellers.”
If Duterte feels badly about how the Americans have treated us, there is no reason to believe that China will be different. Indeed, China could be a whole lot worse.
Hopefully, Duterte listens to his experts on how to deal with China. His newly designated ambassador to Beijing, Chito Sta Romana not only speaks Mandarin but has decades of experience dealing with the Chinese. I hope he makes full use of his expertise.
Better yet, he should sit down with General Jose Almonte and get a briefing on the geopolitical considerations that he must bear in mind with the pivot to China. For example, should this rebound romance with China fizzle out, going back to America may no longer be possible.
For me, that’s well and good. We all want an independent foreign policy for the longest time. We are just worried about the policy’s execution. We don’t want to jump from the frying pan of American imperialism to China’s fire of hegemony.
Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco.
